On Investors’ Minds - APAC Edition VIDEO: U.S.-Iran conflict | Investment portfolio implications and what's next for markets?
Mar 4, 2026
Kerry Craig, Senior Global Market Strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, gives concise market and geopolitical analysis. He covers the U.S.-Iran conflict timeline and escalation risks. He explains impacts on the Strait of Hormuz, shipping flows and which parts of the energy market saw volatility. He also discusses safe-haven moves, yield and currency dynamics, and portfolio hedging options.
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Strait Of Hormuz Is The Immediate Chokepoint
- The Strait of Hormuz is the key chokepoint driving market impact right now.
- Western ships have mostly stopped transiting and flows fell from ~20–25mbd to ~5mbd, pushing maritime oil logistics and storage to a critical limit.
Energy Prices Are The Primary Transmission To Inflation
- Energy is the main transmission channel from the conflict to global inflation and growth.
- A sustained blockade could push Brent toward $100–$120, raising US headline CPI ~15bp per $10 move and hurting consumption via higher gasoline and food costs.
Asia Depends On Gulf Flows With Limited Buffers
- Asia relies heavily on Gulf flows and has limited short-term alternatives.
- Countries like Japan, Korea and China hold only months of reserves, so multi-week or multi-month disruptions would meaningfully stress regional energy supply chains.