Odd Lots War in Iran Is Creating a Fertilizer Crisis Like Never Before
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Mar 11, 2026 
Alexis Maxwell, senior analyst on Bloomberg Intelligence's agriculture team who tracks fertilizer markets, explains how the war in Iran is tightening supplies of urea, ammonia and other nitrogen products. She breaks down how fertilizer is made and why production hubs depend on cheap gas. Timing before spring planting, seasonality, and limited reserves raise the risk of shortages and higher food costs.
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How Urea Is Made And Why It's Shipped Globally
- Urea is the most common nitrogen fertilizer and is produced from natural gas via ammonia using Haber-Bosch, then converted into a granular 46% nitrogen product for shipping.
- Producers locate near cheap natural gas because gas is costly to ship, so urea plants run year-round and export granular urea globally to match seasonal demand.
Haber-Bosch Is Humanity's Great Paradox
- The Haber-Bosch invention enabled modern fertilizers and likely supports roughly half the global population by boosting yields.
- Alexis described it as a paradox: it fed billions but also enabled explosives and weapons through nitrogen chemistry.
Seasonality Forces Make And Ship Economics
- Fertilizer plants run year-round for economies of scale, but farmer demand is seasonal (often ~two months), forcing manufacturers to export rather than hold large inventories.
- There are minimal strategic urea reserves, so storage inability amplifies price shocks at planting time.