Novara Live Bonus Interview: Esfandyar Batmanghelidj on Why the US Will Lose the Economic War With Iran
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Mar 21, 2026 Esfandyar Batmanghelidj, analyst and CEO of Bourse & Bazaar who studies Iran's political economy, explains why US plans to seize Kharg Island may misjudge Iran. He discusses Iran's economic resilience, the impact of targeting energy and logistics hubs, cheap drones changing the battlefield, and global supply chain ripple effects.
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Oil Is Crucial But Not Catastrophic For Iran
- US policymakers overestimate oil's centrality to Iran's economy and underestimate Iran's economic diversification.
- Iran sustained deep export losses in 2019 yet persisted because a large non-oil industrial sector and government prioritization absorbed the shock.
War Costs Are Low For Iran Compared To Adversaries
- Iran sustains its war effort cheaply because its annual military spending is small relative to adversaries and per capita costs are low.
- 2024 data shows ~ $8 billion military spending, about $90 per citizen, so doubling effort needs modest additional resources.
Striking Infrastructure Hits Stocks Not Flows
- Targeting Iran's industrial capital (power plants, steel mills) attacks stocks not flows and can decisively shorten its economic capacity.
- Such strikes would provoke reciprocal attacks and multiply global economic disruption, as seen after the South Pars strike.