The World, the Universe and Us Food shock is inevitable due to the Iran war – and it could get bad
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Apr 2, 2026 Michael Le Page, New Scientist reporter, explains how war-driven spikes in fuel, fertiliser and pesticide costs threaten global food supplies. Paul Behrens, Oxford professor of climate, energy and food systems, outlines fragile supply chains, storage gaps and policy levers. They discuss how biofuel policies, farming practices and dietary change could amplify or ease the coming shock.
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Food System Is Fueled By Fossil Energy
- About 15% of global fossil fuels power the food system, including transport, processing, fertiliser and pesticide production.
- Nitrogen fertilisers are made from natural gas via hydrogen and ammonia, making fertiliser prices tightly linked to gas supply disruptions.
Gulf Exports Drive Global Fertiliser Prices
- Qatar supplies roughly 15% of global urea and about 50% of the urea sold on international markets, so Gulf disruptions can sharply raise global fertiliser prices.
- Fertiliser plants elsewhere also rely on Gulf gas; shutdowns could double fertiliser prices and push food prices up 20–30%.
Pesticide Supply Also At Risk
- Pesticide production depends on naphtha, largely exported from the Gulf and Russia, so attacks on Gulf ports and Russian export hubs risk pesticide shortages and price spikes.
- Multiple strike points (Gulf, Russia) create overlapping supply shocks across agrochemical inputs.