Markets Outlook Why 10x Research Sees a Bitcoin Drop to $50,000 This Summer | Markets Outlook
Feb 17, 2026
Markus Thielen, founder and CEO of 10x Research known for institutional crypto analysis. He warns of a deepening downtrend from institutional redemptions and a post-election liquidity gap. He breaks down negative option gamma forcing market makers to sell. He outlines a forecast of Bitcoin slipping toward $40k–$50k this summer and timing scenarios that could change the path.
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Institutional Redemptions Drove Early-Year Selling
- Institutional selling reversed ETF accumulation and created a negative Coinbase premium signaling heavy institutional redemptions.
- Markus Thielen points to hedge funds being underwater in Q4, causing redemptions and institutional sales that pushed Coinbase prices into a discount versus global markets.
Post-Election Liquidity Gap Created A Trap
- A liquidity gap from a rapid post-election rally left thin order books, creating a 'liquidity trap' when price re-entered that range near 87,000 and accelerated selling.
- Thielen describes the November 2024 post-election jump to 90,000 created little trading activity, so falling back into that range triggered outsized moves.
Negative Option Gamma Pushed Market Makers To Sell
- Negative option gamma forced market makers to sell futures as price fell, amplifying the downtrend through cascading hedges.
- Thielen identifies heavy negative gamma at ~75,000 with the 'last negative gamma' at 60,000 driving systematic selling.