Paul Burgess: “Burgess Oceanic-Solar-CO2 Index Follow-Up” | Tom Nelson Pod #375

Feb 26, 2026

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Paul Burgess presents updates to his Burgess Oceanic Solar CO2 index, claiming it precisely matches satellite temperatures from 1982–2025 without changing its fixed formula, including UAH v6.1 and final 2024–2025 data despite a record-low PDO. He says the index is not a forecasting model and implies ECS is 1°C, with ~25% warming from CO2 and ~22–23% from human CO2 after outgassing. A second paper argues oceans drive low-cloud changes (1–3 year lag), with ~2% cloud decline explaining warming, challenging IPCC positive feedbacks. He previews an extension back to 1900 with ~0.96 correlation using a UHI adjustment (Connolly 2021) and invites critique by email.

00:00 Paul Burgess Returns: Introducing the Oceanic Solar CO₂ Index Update

00:24 How the Index Matches Satellite Temps (and Why That’s Unusual)

01:02 No Curve-Fitting: Validation, Critiques, and Why It’s Public

02:19 Completing 2024–2025 + Switching UAH v6.0 to v6.1

03:42 Index vs Model: Fixed Formula, Inputs, and What It Can (and Can’t) Forecast

05:01 CO₂ Contribution & ECS = 1°C: What the Index Implies

07:01 Paper #1 Results: Record-Low PDO Stress Test and Fit Metrics

11:43 From Statistics to Physics: Paper #2 on Oceans, Clouds, and Sunlight

13:03 Clouds as Earth’s Thermostat: The ~2% Low-Cloud Change Claim

15:58 Cloud Layers & Evidence: Low Clouds Drive the Signal

17:58 IPCC Feedback Story Explained (and Critiqued)

21:31 Chicken-and-Egg Problem: Ocean–Cloud Coupling and the 1–3 Year Lag

22:00 Paper #3 Teaser: Testing Water Vapor, Albedo, and Cloud Feedbacks

27:21 Key Takeaways: Albedo/Ice Changes Follow Warming + Better Cloud Observations

28:19 Cloud Cover vs. Shortwave Radiation: What the Satellite Data Shows

28:59 Takeaway #3: Low Clouds as an Ocean-Driven “Sunshade” (Not a Warming Amplifier)

29:37 Four Key Lessons: Ocean Leads Clouds, and the Radiative Effect Matches

30:57 Implications for Climate Sensitivity: Why Models May Overstate CO₂ Feedbacks

32:07 How to Critique the Framework: Falsification Tests and Evidence Chain

34:57 Extending the BOI Back to 1900: Data Limits, UHI Adjustments, and Out-of-Sample Logic

36:12 Sneak Peek Results: BOI 1900–2025 and the 0.96 Correlation Claim

40:23 Q&A: How the BOI Coefficients Were Built (Covariance Fitting, Weights, Inputs)

43:51 Testing and Next Steps: Volcano Signals, Ocean Mechanisms, and Future Projections

47:02 Forecast vs. IPCC + Wrap-Up: Cooling Possibility, Politics, and Contact Info

Email: svsuliere@gmail.com

Explaining Every Temperature Change from 1983 to 2025 - My Most Important Work Ever: https://substack.com/home/post/p-182701114

Linking Ocean Heat, Low Clouds, and Sunlight In Burgess Oceanic index: https://paulburgess3.substack.com/p/linking-ocean-heat-low-clouds-and

Testing Water Vapour, Albedo and Cloud Feedback with the Burgess Oceanic Index: https://paulburgess3.substack.com/p/testing-water-vapour-albedo-and-cloud

Climate Realism by Paul Burgess: https://www.youtube.com/@ClimateRealism

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