Iran: The Latest Is Trump about to invade Venezuela?
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Oct 24, 2025 
Brian Finucane, a Senior Adviser at the International Crisis Group and a former Department of State lawyer, dives deep into the rising tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela. He discusses the controversial military buildup near Venezuela and clarifies the legal ambiguities of recent U.S. strikes. Finucane debunks narratives around narco-terrorism, while explaining why regime change in Caracas may be unrealistic. He also raises alarms about the implications for U.S. democracy and the erosion of congressional authority over military actions.
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Legal Memo Creates Internal Permission Slip
- The administration has reportedly relied on an Office of Legal Counsel memo to justify strikes, creating internal legal pressure.
- That memo functions as a permission slip, making it harder for DoD lawyers to push back.
Fentanyl Narrative Misleads Public
- The administration's narrative ties the strikes to narco-trafficking and fentanyl, but evidence doesn't support fentanyl claims.
- Drugs found on these vessels are likely cocaine or marijuana and headed elsewhere in the Caribbean.
Pressure Not Full Invasion
- The deployed assets exceed requirements for boat strikes but fall short of what a full invasion would need.
- The likely objective is coercing Maduro or encouraging internal defections rather than a full territorial conquest.