The Story People are betting on war. Here’s why it matters
Mar 27, 2026
Chris Stokel-Walker, a technology journalist and author who covers digital culture, explains how prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi work. He describes the platforms, the surge in high-stakes betting on conflicts such as Iran, and concerns about insider trading and regulation. He also explores how these markets could shape information flows and the ethical risks of normalizing wagers on violence.
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Geopolitics Turned Into Tradable Markets
- Prediction markets present geopolitics as tradable outcomes, letting users bet on ceasefires, leaders, and territorial control.
- Chris Stokel-Walker notes Polymarket users wagered $49m on Iran ceasefire odds and leaders like Mojtaba Khamenei at 53%.
Rapid Growth Made Markets Financially Significant
- The prediction market sector exploded rapidly, growing over 400% from 2024 to 2025.
- Chris reports the broader market reached about $64 billion with individual markets holding millions in wagers.
One Bet Turned $30m Into $85m
- A single French trader bet $30m on Donald Trump and reportedly made $85m from the 2024 election market.
- Chris uses this example to explain why mainstream users flocked to prediction platforms after big wins.