Raging Moderates with Scott Galloway and Jessica Tarlov Why It's Hard to Know What Comes Next in Iran
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Mar 2, 2026 
James Stavridis, retired U.S. Navy Admiral and former NATO Supreme Allied Commander, provides expert military and strategic analysis. He maps three scenarios for Iran, weighs options for an off-ramp versus wider war, and discusses covert, cyber and conventional tools to degrade Tehran’s capabilities. He also explores regional ripple effects, oil market risks, and geopolitical impacts on China and Russia.
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Three Plausible Futures For Iran
- Admiral James Stavridis estimates a 30% chance Iranians will overthrow the clerical regime, with a 70% chance split between a moderated Iran 3.0 or harsher repression.
- He frames outcomes as: popular revolution, a moderated successor regime, or the mullahs doubling down after strikes and repression.
Prep The Battlefield Before Bombing
- Before kinetic strikes, Admiral James Stavridis would prep the battlefield with CIA, Mossad, and planners rather than rely on air power alone.
- He advised returning to the Pentagon to build a coordinated plan that prepares the population and resistance networks first.
Unclear Objectives Undermine Strategy
- Stavridis identifies three stated objectives: overthrow the regime, support protesters, and neutralize ballistic/nuclear threats, and criticizes unclear prioritization.
- He urges the president to clearly state which objectives are primary and the plan to achieve them.