The Rest Is Politics The Future of Warfare: Anthropic vs OpenAI
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Mar 5, 2026 They debate whether Europe is becoming dependent on American AI and what that means for sovereignty. They unpack private firms' deals with the military and whether companies should set red lines. They explore how vendor services and compute access shape modern warfare. They discuss risks from competition, politicised AI negotiations, and calls for a European AI coalition.
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Defense Hardware Is Now Vendor-Dependent
- Modern military purchases are services, not just hardware, creating vendor dependence that limits sovereign control.
- Rory Stewart explains Afghan helicopters became unusable when 20,000 contractors who provided software maintenance left, grounding the fleet.
Afghanistan Showed Contractors Ground Fleets
- Rory Stewart recounts the Afghanistan example where contractors maintained aircraft and their withdrawal disabled the fleet.
- He describes Afghan Air Force planes needing a software engineer after every landing, so without contractors they couldn't fly.
Companies Can Constrain Military Action
- Private companies can effectively veto military use by controlling ongoing services like software and connectivity.
- Rory Stewart and Matt Clifford note Starlink or Anthropic could be nationalized in war, but short of that militaries remain vulnerable.