Saxo Market Call Triple witching into weekend uncertainty
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Mar 20, 2026 A focused look at packed market volatility around triple witching and key technical pivots for US indices. A rundown of options flows, put buying and potential post-expiry dynamics. Deep dive into Iran-linked strikes, refinery and LNG damage and how supply shocks are tightening crude-on-water stocks. Shipping bottlenecks through the Strait of Hormuz and rising logistics costs round out the risk picture.
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Triple Witching May Unleash Latent Volatility
- Triple witching can unmask suppressed volatility by removing large options hedging flows that have been constraining moves.
- John Hardy notes heavy put buying and large expiry rolling off today, which could free markets to move once hedging flows settle.
Refinery Attacks Threaten Jet Fuel Supplies
- Energy infrastructure strikes are raising immediate supply risk, especially for jet fuel where Europe relies heavily on flows via the Strait of Hormuz.
- John Hardy highlights Kuwait's refinery hit and Europe being ~40% reliant on Hormuz jet fuel, creating weeks-long shortage risk.
Qatar LNG Damage Cuts Material Output
- Damage to LNG infrastructure can cause meaningful multi-year output loss and tighten global gas markets.
- John Hardy cites Qatar's hit taking an estimated 17% of output offline with repair timelines of three to five years.