Robert Wright's Nonzero Trump's Big Gambles: Iran, China, and AI (Robert Wright, Andrew Day, and Curt Mills)
10 snips
Feb 5, 2026 
Curt Mills, columnist and American Conservative executive director who covers national security and politics. They debate whether conflict with Iran is likely and how Israeli and domestic politics shape U.S. choices. The conversation then shifts to AI and China: chip controls, an AI arms-race, risks of superintelligence, and how technology and geopolitics could redraw Taiwan and global power dynamics.
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High Reward, Higher Risk In Iran Strategy
- Trump's Iran posture raises war risk because quick, low-cost strikes win political praise yet invite repeat attempts.
- Negotiations shifted from human-rights rhetoric back to nuclear, missile, and conventional constraints, increasing escalation stakes.
Biden’s Wider Iran Demands Backfired
- Robert Wright recounts that Biden's team once tried to expand Iran talks beyond nuclear issues and that was a non-starter for Iran.
- This history shows negotiating scope shifts can sink diplomacy and heighten tensions.
Domestic Fragility Makes Iran Less Predictable
- Iran's internal repression and regime vulnerability make its external retaliation calculus less predictable and potentially fiercer.
- Hardliners may view a forceful response as existential, increasing the chance of a substantial retaliation if attacked.
