The Rachman Review Iran war risks turning into a battle of endurance
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Mar 5, 2026 
Emile Hokayem, Director of Regional Security at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, provides expert analysis on Middle East security. He discusses the likely intense initial weeks followed by a long, messy tail. They weigh missile versus interceptor endurance, Gulf vulnerabilities compared with Israel, divergent US and Israeli aims, and the risks of deeper Western entanglement and regional instability.
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Israel Wants To Cripple Iran Not Rebuild It
- Israel's main objective is to degrade Iran's power rather than manage the aftermath.
- Hokayem: Israel prefers a weakened or chaotic Iran so long as it cannot project power.
Chaos In Iran Would Ripple Across The Region
- A chaotic Iran would produce acute regional instability across politics, refugees, and security.
- Hokayem lists risks: fragmented IRGC, unsecured nuclear material, ethnic fissures and revenue collapse from lost oil exports.
No US Ground Troops Means Regional Influence Campaigns
- The US is unlikely to commit ground forces, increasing the chance regional actors will try to influence Iran internally.
- Hokayem predicts Gulf and Turkey will co-opt factions rather than mount large-scale interventions.