The Rollup How the Oil Shock Is Flipping the Macro Playbook | Felix Jauvin
Mar 25, 2026
Felix Jauvin, Head of Content at Blockworks and macro trader, brings Fed, FX, commodities and crypto chops. He breaks down oil shock risks around the Strait of Hormuz. He explains why the dollar rallies in crises and why gold retraced. He tackles Bitcoin's narrative issues and how trading shifts in low-volatility macro markets.
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Crisis-Driven Dollar Demand
- Global crises drive acute dollar demand because many international contracts and reserves are dollar-denominated.
- Felix explains oil settled in dollars and countries sell U.S. debt to buy dollars, forcing DXY strength when bad things happen.
Currency Is A Relative Game
- Currency moves are always relative; a stable DXY can mask simultaneous debasement across multiple currencies.
- Felix cautions that apparent dollar weakness may be broad-based debasement of other currencies, not true dollar strength.
Oil Shock Favors Dollar Through Regional Impact
- An oil shock centered on the Strait of Hormuz disproportionately hurts Europe and Asia, lifting the dollar via relative weakness in euro and yen.
- Felix notes the U.S. is largely energy independent so the shock impacts other regions faster, pressuring their currencies.