Bloomberg Surveillance Oil Surge Overshadows Tame US CPI
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Mar 11, 2026 Angelo Kourkafas, senior investment strategist at Edward Jones, on client reactions and disciplined positioning. Lisa Shalett, CIO at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, on market resilience, thematic investing, and wealth positioning. Lindsay Rosner, head of multi-sector investing at GSAM, on geopolitical risk, oil effects, and sector moves. Troy Lutka, senior U.S. economist at SMBC Nikko, on CPI, Fed timing, and stagflation risks.
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CPI Is Secondary To Oil In Current Shock
- The February CPI print took on reduced significance because geopolitical tensions and oil are now the key story.
- Troy Lutka warns CPI could reach ~3.3% year-over-year if oil stays ≥ $100/barrel for nine months, shifting the inflation picture quickly.
Wait For Oil To Calm Before Expecting Fed Cuts
- Wait for clearer oil price direction before expecting Fed moves because shelter is falling while non-shelter CPI is oil-sensitive.
- Troy recommends the Fed will likely hold and only cut once inflation calms, penciling one cut in July.
Falling Shelter Masks Oil-Driven Core Acceleration
- Shelter inflation is falling sharply due to a weakening housing market, which eases long-run CPI pressure.
- But CPI excluding shelter is accelerating and moves almost one-for-one with oil, making headline inflation volatile.