Animal Spirits Podcast

The Stock Market Is Doing Something We’ve Never Seen Before (EP. 463)

97 snips
May 6, 2026
They debate Paul Tudor Jones’s valuation warnings and whether the U.S. is over-allocated to stocks. They dig into hyperscalers’ mind-boggling capex and MAG7 earnings strength. They cover a lost decade for long-term bonds, rising gas prices and why consumers feel squeezed. They explore government debt levels, prediction market integrity, AI’s labor effects and why today’s housing cycle differs from 2008.
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INSIGHT

Hyperscalers Ramp CapEx Toward Operating Cash Flow Limits

  • Hyperscalers are dramatically increasing CapEx, consuming an ever-larger share of operating cash flow.
  • Ben notes Amazon/Meta/Microsoft/Google plan ~77% more CapEx than last year and hyperscaler CapEx was ~70% of operating cash flow in 2025, rising toward 90% in 2026.
INSIGHT

Long Treasuries Had A Lost Decade

  • Long-term US Treasuries have delivered negative total returns over the past decade as rates rose.
  • Ben highlights TLT's 11-year negative return and ~40% drawdown since early 2020, showing bond duration risk for traditional bond holders.
ANECDOTE

Gas Pain Feels Real When You Pay $90 To Fill A Tank

  • Michael shares a personal moment noticing higher gasoline prices while filling his wife's car and how round numbers trigger stronger reactions.
  • He recounts paying roughly $90 to fill a tank and texting his wife: 'Holy shit. Gas is $5 a gallon.'
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