Full Story Back to Back Barries: How the fuel crisis could hurt Albanese
Mar 27, 2026
A sharp postmortem on the South Australian results and what they reveal about preference flows. A tense look at whether a fuel supply crunch could damage the federal government. A debate over appetite for tax reform and the political math around capital gains changes. A profile of Andrew Hastie and why he complicates the opposition landscape.
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One Nation Surge Hit Labor Soft Voters
- South Australia's election showed a strong One Nation surge to 22% primary but few seats gained.
- One Nation's votes came partly from safe Labor seats like Elizabeth and Giles where voters felt consequence-free to protest.
Liberals Lose Metropolitan Ground
- The Liberals collapsed to about 19% in South Australia, leaving them with almost no urban representation in Adelaide.
- Bragg became the only urban Liberal seat and federally they hold only nine of 88 urban seats, highlighting metropolitan disconnect.
SA Results Not Universally Predictive
- South Australia's results won't directly predict other states because Labor's primary there is unusually high at ~37.7%.
- In states like Victoria, lower Labor primary means One Nation likely performs differently and may win more support.