FEAR & GREED | Business News Q+A: The Week Ahead | 2 Feb 2026
Feb 1, 2026
Stephen Koukoulas, economist known for sharp macro commentary at thekuk.com. He breaks down the RBA’s timing dilemma on a potential rate rise. He explains why a hold with a hawkish tone is possible. He explores inflation measures, global market risks and who feels any hike first.
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RBA At A Crossroads Over A Tight Call
- The RBA faces a close call between hiking 25 basis points or holding amid mixed signals.
- Stephen Koukoulas expects a hold but warns the board will sound hawkish either way.
Monthly Inflation Signals Cooling
- Monthly trimmed mean inflation shows signs of moderating even without a rate hike.
- Stephen says the monthly series suggests quarterly inflation should fall over the next few months.
Use RBA Reports To Gauge Global Risk
- Watch global factors like commodity prices, the AUD and China when assessing RBA risk.
- Stephen recommends reading the RBA's Statement on Monetary Policy to understand their deliberations.