Past Present Future Where Are We Going? Nuclear War Part 3
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Feb 22, 2026 S. M. Amadae, a political theorist focused on nuclear strategy, offers a sharp look at the future of nuclear weapons. Conversations cover arms control versus abolition, how Ukraine and rising Asian arsenals change risk calculations, and dangers from automation and AI. The discussion also explores existential risk, political drivers of escalation, and where hope for disarmament might still come from.
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Treaties Lapsed As Geopolitics Heated Up
- Recent geopolitical instability and the lapse of New START increase nuclear danger, with Russia framing doctrine to allow first use in perceived existential threats.
- S. M. Amadae highlights the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists' 85 seconds to midnight and the Ukraine war's impact on US–Russia arms diplomacy.
Bilateral Deals No Longer Fit A Multipolar Nuclear World
- Non-bilateral nuclear dynamics complicate arms control because China, India and Pakistan are expanding arsenals while US–Russia negotiations falter.
- David Runciman stresses multilateral talks including China would be far more complex than Cold War bilateral deals.
NPT Credibility Hinges On Nuclear States Keeping Promises
- The NPT's legitimacy rests on nuclear states' Article 6 commitments, but first-use postures and lack of serious reductions erode that bargain.
- S. M. Amadae argues continued US first-use policy undermines non-proliferation credibility and spurs other states' insecurity.
