The Nonlinear Library EA - AI-based disinformation is probably not a major threat to democracy by Dan Williams
Feb 25, 2024
18:17
Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: AI-based disinformation is probably not a major threat to democracy, published by Dan Williams on February 25, 2024 on The Effective Altruism Forum.
[Note: this essay was originally posted to my website, https://www.conspicuouscognition.com/p/ai-based-disinformation-is-probably. A few people contacted me to suggest that I also post it here in case of interest].
Many people are worried that the use of artificial intelligence in generating or transmitting disinformation poses a serious threat to democracies. For example, the Future of Life Institute's 2023 Open Letter demanding a six-month ban on AI development asks: "Should we let machines flood our information channels with propaganda and untruth?" The question reflects a general concern that has been highly influential among journalists, experts, and policy makers.
Here is just a small sample of headlines from major media outlets:
More generally, amidst the current excitement about AI, there is a popular demand for commentators and experts who can speak eloquently about the dangers it poses. Audiences love narratives about threats, especially when linked to fancy new technologies. However, most commentators don't want to go full Eliezer Yudkowsky and claim that super-intelligent AI will kill us all.
So they settle for what they think is a more reasonable position, one that aligns better with the prevailing sensibility and worldview of the liberal commentariat: AI will greatly exacerbate the problem of online disinformation, which - as every educated person knows - is one of the great scourges of our time.
For example, in the World Economic Forum's 2024 Global Risks Report surveying 1500 experts and policy makers, they list "misinformation and disinformation" as the top global risk over the next two years:
In defence of this assessment, a post on the World Economic Forum's website notes:
"The growing concern about misinformation and disinformation is in large part driven by the potential for AI, in the hands of bad actors, to flood global information systems with false narratives."
This idea gets spelled out in different ways, but most conversations focus on the following threats:
Deepfakes (realistic but fake images, videos, and audio generated by AI) will either trick people into believing falsehoods or cause them to distrust all recordings on the grounds they might be deepfakes.
Propagandists will use generative AI to create hyper-persuasive arguments for false views (e.g. "the election was stolen").
AI will enable automated disinformation campaigns. Propagandists will use effective AI bots instead of staffing their troll farms with human, all-too-human workers.
AI will enable highly targeted, personalised disinformation campaigns ("micro-targeting").
How worried should we be about threats like these? As I return to at the end of this essay, there are genuine dangers when it comes to the effects of AI on our informational ecosystem. Moreover, as with any new technology, it is good to think pro-actively about risks, and it would be silly to claim that worries about AI-based disinformation lack any foundation at all.
Nevertheless, at least when it comes to Western democracies, the alarmism surrounding this topic generally rests on popular but mistaken beliefs about human psychology, democracy, and disinformation.
In this post, I will identify four facts that many commentators on this topic neglect. Taken collectively, they imply that many concerns about the effects of AI-based disinformation on democracies are greatly overstated.
Online disinformation does not lie at the root of modern political problems.
Political persuasion is extremely difficult.
The media environment is highly competitive and demand-driven.
The establishment will have access to more powerful forms of AI than counter-establishment sources.
1. Onl...
[Note: this essay was originally posted to my website, https://www.conspicuouscognition.com/p/ai-based-disinformation-is-probably. A few people contacted me to suggest that I also post it here in case of interest].
Many people are worried that the use of artificial intelligence in generating or transmitting disinformation poses a serious threat to democracies. For example, the Future of Life Institute's 2023 Open Letter demanding a six-month ban on AI development asks: "Should we let machines flood our information channels with propaganda and untruth?" The question reflects a general concern that has been highly influential among journalists, experts, and policy makers.
Here is just a small sample of headlines from major media outlets:
More generally, amidst the current excitement about AI, there is a popular demand for commentators and experts who can speak eloquently about the dangers it poses. Audiences love narratives about threats, especially when linked to fancy new technologies. However, most commentators don't want to go full Eliezer Yudkowsky and claim that super-intelligent AI will kill us all.
So they settle for what they think is a more reasonable position, one that aligns better with the prevailing sensibility and worldview of the liberal commentariat: AI will greatly exacerbate the problem of online disinformation, which - as every educated person knows - is one of the great scourges of our time.
For example, in the World Economic Forum's 2024 Global Risks Report surveying 1500 experts and policy makers, they list "misinformation and disinformation" as the top global risk over the next two years:
In defence of this assessment, a post on the World Economic Forum's website notes:
"The growing concern about misinformation and disinformation is in large part driven by the potential for AI, in the hands of bad actors, to flood global information systems with false narratives."
This idea gets spelled out in different ways, but most conversations focus on the following threats:
Deepfakes (realistic but fake images, videos, and audio generated by AI) will either trick people into believing falsehoods or cause them to distrust all recordings on the grounds they might be deepfakes.
Propagandists will use generative AI to create hyper-persuasive arguments for false views (e.g. "the election was stolen").
AI will enable automated disinformation campaigns. Propagandists will use effective AI bots instead of staffing their troll farms with human, all-too-human workers.
AI will enable highly targeted, personalised disinformation campaigns ("micro-targeting").
How worried should we be about threats like these? As I return to at the end of this essay, there are genuine dangers when it comes to the effects of AI on our informational ecosystem. Moreover, as with any new technology, it is good to think pro-actively about risks, and it would be silly to claim that worries about AI-based disinformation lack any foundation at all.
Nevertheless, at least when it comes to Western democracies, the alarmism surrounding this topic generally rests on popular but mistaken beliefs about human psychology, democracy, and disinformation.
In this post, I will identify four facts that many commentators on this topic neglect. Taken collectively, they imply that many concerns about the effects of AI-based disinformation on democracies are greatly overstated.
Online disinformation does not lie at the root of modern political problems.
Political persuasion is extremely difficult.
The media environment is highly competitive and demand-driven.
The establishment will have access to more powerful forms of AI than counter-establishment sources.
1. Onl...