Daniel Davis Deep Dive Prof John Mearsheimer: Trump WIl Be FORCED TO CUT A DEAL w/IRAN
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May 13, 2026 
John Mearsheimer, renowned realist IR scholar and UChicago professor, offers sharp analysis of Iran, geopolitics, and great power strategy. He discusses how U.S. policy shaped Iran’s nuclear path. He weighs prospects for a negotiated settlement, economic pressures driving diplomacy, and the risks of military escalation with wider regional and global implications.
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Military Spending Alone Doesn't Win Asymmetric Wars
- Mearsheimer explains why raw military spending doesn't guarantee victory: terrain, type of war, and political objectives matter.
- He compares Iran to Vietnam and Afghanistan to show how smaller adversaries can prevail despite lower budgets.
First Campaign Left Iran's Strike Capacity Largely Intact
- Intelligence assessments showed most Iranian mobile and underground missile launchers remained after the first U.S. air campaign.
- Mearsheimer warns the U.S. also expended high-value munitions, reducing leverage for a second successful strike.
Trump And Xi Seek Stability Not Confrontation In Summit
- On Trump's China trip, Mearsheimer expects both leaders to favor stability: Xi needs economic calm, Trump needs to avoid an East Asia crisis while tied up by Iran and Ukraine wars.
- He predicts pomp but little strategic change.