FEAR & GREED | Business News Q+A: The Week Ahead | 9 Feb 2026
Feb 8, 2026
Stephen Koukoulas, economist and commentator known as 'The Kook', offers a concise macro view. He previews December household spending and what it reveals about consumer strength. He breaks down lending data and first‑home buyer impacts. He discusses capital gains tax changes, political barriers to fiscal reform, and why the RBA shifted to hiking rates.
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December Spending Could Confirm Inflation Risk
- December household spending will reveal if the recent strength was a one-off or persistent trend.
- A monthly rise around 0.5% would be classified as strong and reinforce the RBA's concerns.
Lending Data Will Test Credit-Driven Pressure
- Lending data will show if first-home-buyer incentives and investor demand are real drivers of credit growth.
- Strong housing credit would validate the RBA's decision to raise rates.
CGT Changes Would Tighten Fiscal Stance
- Reversing capital gains tax concessions could slightly trim house prices but mainly improves the budget bottom line.
- Saved revenue could be used to boost housing supply or reduce the budget deficit.