Politics Theory Other Strategic defeat in the Gulf w/ Jennifer Kavanagh
Apr 8, 2026
Jennifer Kavanagh, Senior Fellow and Director of Military Analysis at Defence Priorities, explains how a two-week ceasefire looked like a major strategic defeat for the US. She discusses the ceasefire’s regional implications. She examines the vulnerability of Gulf bases and what rivals and Asian allies might learn from the conflict.
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Iran Ceasefire Signals US Strategic Defeat
- The US suffered a major strategic defeat by gaining no leverage despite tactical military actions.
- Jennifer Kavanagh argues the ceasefire reflects a strategic blunder because US objectives weren’t achieved and costs were high.
US Political Support For Israel Is Shifting
- A significant shift in US political attitudes toward Israel is likely over time, though not under the current administration.
- Kavanagh notes changing public opinion, congressional demographics and 2028 presidential prospects as drivers.
Gulf Bases Are Liability Not Asset
- Forward US bases in the Middle East offer little security value and create disproportionate risk.
- Kavanagh cites damaged air defenses, hit aircraft (including an E3 AWACS), and personnel moved into hotels as evidence bases are unusable.