Turtle Talk Episode 12 – Just the Turtles: February Review, Energy Breakouts & Myth Busting

Join Rich Brennan, Jerry Parker, and Adam Havryliv for Episode 12 of Turtle Talk — no guests this month, just the three turtles going deep.

February was another outstanding month for classic trend followers, but March has thrown a few spanners in the works. The guys unpack what's really driving performance, where the next big opportunities might be hiding, and take aim at some of the most persistent myths in the trend following space.

In this episode:

📊 Battle of the Trend Following Indexes – February 2026 Review All trend following benchmarks delivered strong February results. Classic Trend Index up 5.3% for the month, 14.6% over the last quarter, and 10.5% year to date — continuing to separate from the pack. A discussion on log-scale charting and what the February results really tell us (and don't tell us) about what comes next. 👉 Full report: https://www.aussieturtles.com

📈 What's Moved the Needle Jerry spotlights aluminium and bean oil — two markets showing that the opportunity set extends well beyond precious metals. Adam dives into the dramatic divergence between European and US natural gas, and the explosive breakout in Brent crude toward $114. A timely reminder that correlation is fragile when supply chains are under stress.

🐢 Turtle Tidbits – Deep Dives Two meaty topics from Jerry and Adam:

• Jerry on diversification: Why the classic trend follower's goal isn't to smooth volatility — it's to maximise the chance of catching outliers. The case for trading more markets, not fewer, even when they appear correlated.
• Adam on Trend Following vs. Passive Long Equity: Equity valuations are flashing red across every metric. With energy prices exploding and a potential regime shift underway, Adam makes the case for why the next several years could be very painful for passive index investors — and very rewarding for trend followers.

🔍 Myth Busters Jerry tackles two of the biggest misconceptions in the space:

• The diversification myth: For classic trend followers, diversification isn't about lowering volatility — it's about outlier hunting across as many markets as possible.
• The ATR myth: Richard Dennis used ATR to normalise position sizing on entry. The idea of continuously resizing winning positions to smooth the equity curve? That came later — and it costs you the very outliers that define classic trend following.

📘 The Fractals of Finance Rich's book is available now on Amazon in Kindle, paperback, and hardcover. Search Fractals of Finance or Rich Brennan. If you've read it, a short review goes a long way. 👉 https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0GHTH1WNK

📩 Send your Shell Mail questions: https://www.aussieturtles.com/contact

No episode in April — Rich and Adam are heading to the Malay Archipelago. Back in May, refreshed and ready.

Stay systematic. Stay patient. And may the trend be with you.