Today, Explained How Iran is winning
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Mar 31, 2026 
Phil Stewart, Reuters national security correspondent, and Jerry Doyle, Bloomberg defense editor, unpack why the Strait of Hormuz gives Iran huge leverage. They get into mines, missiles, and illegal transit fees. They also explore oil shocks, food and fuel ripple effects, Karg Island’s role, and how US military planning could quickly spiral.
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Iran Can Close Hormuz Just By Making Passage Too Risky
- Iran can choke the Strait of Hormuz largely by geography, not by a perfect blockade.
- Jerry Doyle says even unconfirmed mines plus anti-ship missiles make insurers and captains treat passage as too risky.
Iran Makes More Money While Everyone Else Gets Squeezed
- Iran is profiting from the closure because its own oil still exits while competitors' exports stall.
- Jerry Doyle estimates Iran sold about 1.6 million barrels daily, earning roughly $139 million a day as fertilizer and fuel prices rose globally.
Ending The War Would Not Quickly Restore Oil Markets
- Even if the war ended tomorrow, oil flows would not snap back quickly.
- Bombed infrastructure needs repairs, and navies would still have to verify the strait is clear of mines before tankers return.