Bloomberg Surveillance Single Best Idea with Tom Keene: Robert Kaplan and Randy Schwimmer
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Mar 26, 2026 Market cadence shifts and Middle East developments reshaping Fed expectations. A 2026 growth outlook driven by tax, regulation, AI data centers and geopolitical risk. A deep dive into private credit’s illiquidity and the dangers of retailizing hard-to-sell assets. Clear warnings about misleading liquidity promises to everyday investors.
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Structural Drivers Behind 2026 Growth Optimism
- A strong 2026 growth case rested on tax incentives, regulatory reform, and an AI data center power boom.
- Kaplan noted those structural drivers made the Fed hopeful about headline inflation easing and potential cuts.
Geopolitics Can Pause Fed Easing
- Geopolitical shocks can derail optimistic growth forecasts and Fed easing plans.
- Robert Kaplan says Middle East tensions forced the Fed to "step back" from expected rate cuts after a previously strong 2026 outlook.
Private Credit Liquidity Is Uneven
- Private credit liquidity varies widely across market segments and is converging with public credit at the large end.
- Randy Schwimmer warns middle-market private credit is very illiquid, so retail expectations of easy exits are misleading.