What Happens Next in 6 Minutes Opening the Strait of Hormuz
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Mar 14, 2026 
James Holmes, a maritime strategy professor and author, breaks down how to keep the Strait of Hormuz open. He compares convoys, area defense, and tactical offense. He weighs arming tankers versus letting navies handle high-end threats. He discusses drone swarms, insurance and rerouting, environmental risks from tanker sinkings, and what low-tech attacks mean for naval balance.
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Area Defense Deterrence With Insurance Side Effects
- Area defense deploys warships across wide zones to perform picket duty and deter attacks, as used in the Red Sea against the Houthis.
- That approach reduced coalition hits but still let some merchantmen be struck and drove up insurance and rerouting costs.
Insurance Markets Can Stop Trade Without Firing A Shot
- Insurance markets and private firms like Lloyd's are strategic actors that can halt shipping by raising premiums.
- Holmes notes tankers are idle in the Gulf because prohibitive insurance renders transit uneconomic despite naval options.
Using Tactical Offense To Enable Safe Transits
- Tactical offense attacks land-based missile and drone sites to reduce threats to shipping and enable safer transits.
- Holmes notes joint strikes, air support, and destroying facility entrances can achieve mission kills on hardened sites.
