China Unscripted Can the US Military Still Surprise China and Iran?
Jan 21, 2026
Grant Newsham, a former U.S. Marine intelligence officer and defense analyst, dives into crucial military strategies against China and Iran. He discusses how U.S. actions in Venezuela shook Chinese perceptions and the strategic importance of rogue allies for China. Newsham weighs the odds of achieving tactical surprise against Iran, stressing the significance of timing for military action. The chat also touches on the risks of political messaging and the pitfalls of encouraging protests without a solid plan.
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China's Network Gave False Confidence
- China relied on alliances with Iran, North Korea, Russia and Venezuela to bolster confidence for Taiwan plans.
- The US action in Venezuela cracked that perceived solidity and altered Chinese calculations.
US Resolve Changes Beijing's Risk Math
- China's calculus on taking Taiwan shifted because US and allies may now be more willing to push back.
- Grant Newsham argues that perceived US resolve influences Beijing's risk assessment.
Tactical Surprise Still Feasible
- Tactical surprise remains possible through deception and long-range strikes even when opponents expect action.
- Grant Newsham cites long-range aircraft strikes and covert operations as feasible approaches.