Better Offline Prediction Markets with Rebecca Ungarino and Nick Devor
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Mar 18, 2026 
Rebecca Ungarino, a Wall Street reporter covering banking and regulation, and Nick Devor, a reporter on gambling and markets, dive into prediction markets. They explain how event contracts work, compare crypto platforms with regulated U.S. venues, debate manipulation and ethical risks, and explore how banks and institutions are responding to this regulatory frontier.
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Treat Market Prices As One Input Not A Verdict
- Use prediction-market prices cautiously as one input among many rather than definitive signals, especially for securities-related events.
- Rebecca Ungarino said research analysts treat these markets like sentiment data to supplement, not replace, other analysis.
Securities Questions Make Regulation Messier
- Securities-based prediction markets blur lines with regulated securities, raising legal complications for trading desks and regulators.
- Rebecca Ungarino warned markets like 'Will NVIDIA close up or down' move into securities territory and complicate CFTC/SEC oversight.
Prediction Markets As Symptom Of Financial Despair
- Prediction markets reflect a broader financialization trend where people seek quick ways to make money amid inequality and inaccessible traditional investing.
- Ed Zitron argued ads like 'my bet will pay for my coffee' highlight bleak incentives and retail financial nihilism.