Russians Are Now Feeling Real Economic Pain From Putin’s War

14 snips

Nov 26, 2025

Guest

Max Wasserman

Elise Giuliano, a senior lecturer at Columbia University, highlights the deepening economic pain in Russia due to the ongoing war, emphasizing how households are tightening budgets and industries struggle. Claudia Sahm, a chief economist, discusses macroeconomic trends, noting that high-income spending disguises broader weaknesses as the Fed debates rate cuts. Max Wasserman, a portfolio manager, warns of concentration risk in AI stocks and suggests defensive investments like Home Depot and McDonald's amid potential economic shifts.

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INSIGHT

Ceasefire Possible But Peace Unlikely Soon

A ceasefire could reduce immediate suffering, but Giuliano doubts Putin will accept terms that preserve Ukrainian sovereignty.
She sees the conflict as a war of attrition with unpredictable outcomes over months to years.

INSIGHT

Beige Book Flags Uneven Demand

The Beige Book shows mixed activity: modest declines overall but resilience among high-income consumers.
Stuart Paul emphasizes employment declines matter more for Fed policy than upper-income spending.

ADVICE

Consider A December Rate Cut

Stuart Paul recommends the Fed consider a December rate cut to support slowing employment and spending.
He expects policymakers will prioritize undergirding the economy with easier policy.

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As President Vladimir Putin’s war on Ukraine enters a fourth winter, Russians are having to come to grips with its growing impact on nearly every aspect of their daily lives.

Dozens of regions in central and southern Russia are now feeling the war’s proximity as drones and sometimes missiles hit energy sites and residential buildings. Air raid sirens wail almost every night, offering a constant — and very public — reminder of how the conflict is encroaching.
Beyond the front lines, the rest of Russia, Moscow included, has started to feel the economic toll. From households cutting back on food spending to struggling steel, mining and energy companies, the country’s economic engine is showing multiple fractures, and the earlier resilience spurred by massive fiscal stimulus and record energy revenues is being tested.

The degree of suffering is incomparable to that of Ukraine, and is in any case unlikely to prompt Putin to end the war, yet it underlines the ever-higher cost being extracted for his decision to launch the all-out invasion in February 2022.

The fallout is hitting just as the US applies pressure to curb oil and gas revenue flowing to Moscow as part of the Trump administration’s flurry of activity aimed at reaching a ceasefire. Momentum for a deal is growing, with talks shifting to Moscow and US-Russian negotiations known to have been working behind the scenes on a package that would give Kremlin the sanctions relief it wants.

Today's show features:

Elise Giuliano, Senior Lecturer in Political Science at Columbia University, on whether the US can ultimately get Russia and Ukraine to agree to peace terms as US presidential envoy Steve Witkoff prepares to visit Moscow
Bloomberg Economics US and Canada Economist Stuart Paul and Claudia Sahm, Chief Economist for New Century Advisors on Wednesday’s jobless data, the US consumer and the Federal Reserve Beige Book
Bloomberg Boston Bureau Chief Brooke Sutherland on the latest earnings from Deere, and why its downbeat 2026 forecast is an indicator of broader economic uncertainty
Max Wasserman, Founder and Senior Portfolio Manager of Miramar Capital, on potential concentration risk and over-reliance on AI and technology stocks for returns

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