The spiked podcast ‘Gorton and Denton was a nightmare for Labour’ | James Johnson
Feb 27, 2026
James Johnson, co-founder of JL Partners and pollster, breaks down surprising Gorton and Denton by-election shocks. He unpacks the Green landslide, Labour’s collapsing heartland support, Reform UK’s prospects, faith-driven voting patterns, and how smaller right-wing parties are faring. Multiple short takes on what these results mean for British politics moving forward.
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Green Victory Exposed Labour Weakness
- The Green Party's large by-election win was unexpected and revealed left-wing fragmentation in Labour's heartlands.
- James Johnson cites weak Labour ground operations in safe seats and the Greens' effective outreach into the Muslim community as key factors.
ByElection Shift Forces Labour Reappraisal
- The result is potentially worst-case for Labour because it hands votes to multiple challengers, notably the Greens, shaping media narrative.
- Johnson warns by-elections punch above their weight and that a Green win forces Labour to consider shifting left to reclaim voters.
Demographics Made Gorton Unrepresentative For Reform
- Gorton and Denton was a uniquely challenging seat for Reform because of its high Muslim share and deprivation, which tend to favour Labour.
- Johnson notes 28% Muslim population and high deprivation as reasons Reform underperformed here but can target other seats.