Unexpected Value - Poker · Daily Fantasy · Sports Betting #109: Secrets of Modern Sports Betting
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Oct 17, 2023 Ed Miller, author of Interception: The Secrets of Modern Sports Betting, discusses how sports betting operates on information asymmetry, the structure of modern sports books, advantages of utilizing Roto Grinders projections, exploiting player correlations, gambling strategies, and the challenges of sports betting modeling.
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Adverse Selection Strategies
- Treat adverse selection differently in market vs. model-based betting.
- Closing line value matters more in liquid markets (spreads/totals) than in illiquid prop markets.
Lines from a Closet
- Ed Miller describes setting in-play NFL lines from a small office in Nevada.
- A sportsbook in another country quickly copied his lines, highlighting the opaque nature of pricing.
Information Decay
- Information's value is inversely proportional to the number of users and time since release.
- Bet quickly on valuable information before the market adjusts.