Rebel Capitalist News BREAKING: Market Signals Fed Will RAISE RATES!!
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Mar 20, 2026 Market-moving signals from short-term Treasuries and swings in the two-year yield take center stage. Discussion covers PPI, jobless claims, and weak new home sales as economic indicators. Analysis touches gold and dollar moves, corporate stress, and historical parallels to 2008 stagflation and central-bank policy. The tension between oil-driven inflation and looming demand weakness is highlighted.
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Two Year Treasury Usually Leads Fed Policy
- The two-year Treasury typically leads Fed funds and often predicts the Fed's policy cycle before the Fed acts.
- George Gammon shows historical charts where the two-year rose about 100bps above Fed funds in 2008, signaling policy direction ahead of the Fed.
Sudden Two Year Spike Raised Hike Odds
- A 20–30 basis point intraday move in the two-year to near 4% raised market odds (from 0% to ~7%) of a Fed hike despite Fed funds at ~3.65%.
- Gammon links this spike to fidgety markets reacting to PPI and jobless claims data that morning.
PPI And Jobless Claims Fueled Rate Repricing
- Stronger-than-expected PPI (0.7 vs 0.3) and initial jobless claims (205k) pushed the two-year higher as markets weighed inflation versus labor strength.
- Gammon says markets were torn between stagflation fears from oil and weakening payrolls, producing knee-jerk rate repricing.