Current "Massive Deviation" Suggest Stocks Will Pullback By Up To 15% Soon | Lance Roberts

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May 9, 2026

Lance Roberts, portfolio manager and market commentator who blends technical and macro analysis. He warns of a large deviation between prices and moving averages and discusses the high odds of a 10–15% stock pullback. They also cover jobs and consumer sentiment, narrow market leadership in semiconductors, bond yields and credit spreads, and recent portfolio rebalancing moves.

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INSIGHT

Earnings Growth Is Narrowly Concentrated In AI Stocks

The S&P's strong earnings growth is concentrated in a few AI/hyperscaler stocks; strip them out and earnings growth falls sharply.
Lance notes semiconductors are pricing in multi-year future earnings, making the rally narrow and fragile.

INSIGHT

Hyperscaler CapEx Could Sustain Growth And Delay Recession

Hyperscaler CapEx and data-center investment create a powerful multi-year GDP tailwind that can delay or soften a recession.
Lance calculates large capex multipliers (CapEx roughly $1.1T implying a notable percentage of GDP) underpinning tech-driven growth.

ADVICE

Use Equal Weight Outperformance As A Rotation Signal

Watch for rotation signals: equal-weight index (RSP) outperforming market-cap SPY signals money moving out of mega-cap tech into smaller sectors.
Lance recommends monitoring breadth, sector scores, and factor momentum for timing the shift.

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Stocks have rallied so far so fast there's now a "massive deviation" between prices and their daily moving averages.Technical analysis strongly suggests that the risk of pullback, possibly as much as 15%, is now high warns portfolio manager Lance Roberts.Lance and I discuss the odds of this happening soon, as well as the new non-farm payrolls and UMICH consumer sentiment data, as well as bond yields, credit spreads, private equity and, of course, Lance's firm's latest trades.For everything that mattered to markets this week, watch this video.#marketcorrection #jobsreport #bonds _____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It’s important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such.We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer’s unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.All the details on Thoughtful Money's relationship with the financial advisors it endorses, many of whom regularly appear on this program, can be found in the following documents. We highly recommend you review these documents as they cover the terms that will apply should you choose to work with one of these firms at any time after watching this video.Thoughtful Money Disclosure Document: https://thoughtfulmoney.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/Thoughtful-Money-Disclosure-Document-12.6.23.pdf?pid=227Thoughtful Money Agreement: https://thoughtfulmoney.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/Thoughtful-Money-Agreement-Agreement.docx?pid=227IMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities.Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods.A security’s or a firm’s past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC.Copyright © 2026 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.