Daniel Davis Deep Dive IRAN Can Wait Out Trump's Blockade /Lt Col Daniel Davis & Jennifer Kavanagh
Apr 24, 2026
Jennifer Kavanagh, senior fellow and director of military analysis at Defense Priorities, explains why blockades take time and rarely force quick capitulation. She highlights Iran's resilience, alternative export routes, and the slow recovery of shipping. She warns of munitions depletion, strategic setbacks for the U.S., and how diplomacy and realistic compromises may be the only sustainable path forward.
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Negotiate Realistic Terms Instead Of Forcing Surrender
- The only viable exit is diplomacy and political compromise rather than coercion.
- Kavanagh recommends negotiating realistic terms acknowledging Iran's likely continued influence over the Strait and accepting compromises on nuclear issues.
Iran Has A Two Month Economic Valve
- Iran can likely sustain oil production for at least two months using storage and land routes.
- Kavanagh cites storage capacity and reports of roughly 34 tankers slipping the blockade as reasons collapse is not imminent.
Civilian Suffering Doesn't Ensure Regime Collapse
- Even severe civilian suffering under blockade doesn't guarantee regime capitulation.
- Kavanagh points to WWI British blockade of Germany causing mass deaths without immediate surrender to argue Iran may also endure hardship.