Glenn Diesen - Greater Eurasia Podcast Stanislav Krapivnik: Odessa Is a Key Goal in Ukraine War Endgame
Jan 16, 2026
Stanislav Krapivnik, a former U.S. Army officer turned military-political expert, analyzes the endgame of the Ukraine War from a unique perspective. He discusses the critical importance of Odessa and current frontline dynamics in southern Ukraine. Krapivnik details the logistical challenges that could impede Ukraine's efforts and shares insights on troop quality and casualty rates. He also warns of the risks associated with nuclear escalation and geopolitical distractions affecting U.S. policy, asserting that negotiations seem increasingly unlikely.
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Logistics, Not Tactics, Decide Survival
- Modern armies live and die by logistics, not just tactics or strategy.
- Krapivnik argues Ukraine's mix of foreign equipment and supply shortfalls make sustained defense unsustainable.
Prioritize Logistics Before Sending Heavy Gear
- Prioritize sustainable logistics over flashy weapon deliveries to maintain long-term combat power.
- Krapivnik implies allies should align equipment and spare-part pipelines before sending major platforms.
High Daily Casualty Rates Are Unsustainable
- Ukraine is suffering extremely high daily casualties; Krapivnik estimates roughly a brigade's worth of dead and badly wounded per day.
- He warns cumulative losses will rapidly degrade Ukraine's fighting capacity.