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Russia Gains From U S Waivers On Russian Oil
- Russia is an unlikely beneficiary of the Iran war because the U.S. temporarily loosened sanctions allowing increased Russian oil purchases.
- The waiver for India and later widening gave Russia symbolic relief even if it didn't significantly lower global oil prices.
Military Technology Swap Strengthened Russia Iran Ties
- Russia deepened ties with Iran after 2022 by receiving Shahed drones and know-how, and Iran shared lessons learned on drone use and countermeasures.
- That military cooperation included transfers of drones, ballistic missiles, and technical help to produce them locally.
Unclear Scale Of Russian Intelligence Help To Iran
- There is public denial but plausible intelligence-sharing between Russia and Iran including targeting and satellite imagery to locate U.S. forces.
- The key open question is whether transfers were one-offs or systematic and timely, which changes their battlefield impact.