Lead-Lag Live Discipline vs Mania: Seth Cogswell on 1999 Parallels, AI Excess, and Why Risk Is Being Ignored
Feb 5, 2026
Seth Cogswell, Managing Partner at Running Oak Capital, is a valuation-aware investor focused on risk-managed portfolio construction. He compares today’s concentration to 1999, flags AI spending and NVIDIA-dependent assumptions as potential excess, and talks about balancing disciplined protection with selective growth exposure in crowded markets.
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Top-Heavy S&P Mirrors 1999 Concentration
- The top 10 S&P holdings are far more overvalued and concentrated than during the 1999 tech bubble.
- Seth Cogswell warns this elevated concentration amplifies systemic risk if a spark triggers a sell-off.
AI Spending Is The Market's Linchpin
- NVIDIA is the linchpin of the 'not a bubble' AI argument despite uncertain demand and unused inventory.
- If widespread AI spending fails to materialize, the cornerstone of current valuations could crumble quickly.
Pump The Brakes And Diversify Now
- Don't sell everything but reduce complacency by taking cash off the table and diversifying into risk-aware strategies.
- Seth Cogswell recommends disciplined diversification as protection if the cycle turns.