Dojo Talks: A Chess Podcast EP 186 | 2026 Candidates Predictions
Mar 22, 2026
They break down each player's chances in the 2026 Candidates and compare those picks to betting odds. Discussion ranges from underrated outsiders and rising young stars to veterans with stamina and life distractions. They explain rating effects over 14 rounds, debate volatility and expected scores, and tease a fantasy contest where listeners can predict the final standings.
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Transcript
Episode notes
Giri Needs Wins Not Only Endgame Technique
- Giri is seen as a steady contender who can fight for top places if he prepares and wins games rather than relying on ultra-technical endgames.
- His recent qualification route emphasized technical play, but that might not suffice in this field.
Wei Yi's Deep Calculations Make Him Unpredictable
- Wei Yi is enigmatic: top tactical depth and high peak play but low recent activity make him hard to predict.
- His creative move-finding impressed the panel, justifying a sizable chance despite inactivity.
Geary's High Ceiling Tempered By Distractions
- Geary has elite peak talent and a strong 2025 resurgence, but distractions and social media presence may reduce his consistency.
- Panelists split between valuing his ceiling versus worrying about off-board focus.