The Lincoln Project Game Over, Assholes: The Economy Chose Violence
Jan 30, 2026
They argue Trump is losing ground as inflation bites households and economic faith collapses. They discuss extreme immigration raids and how ICE tactics are backfiring politically. They trace how Trump’s businessman image shaped voter expectations and why tariffs and farm pain are hollowing out rural support. They warn that collapsing economic and immigration pillars could open new political vulnerabilities.
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Cruelty Without Control Backfires
- Aggressive ICE tactics and spectacle raids have backfired politically and turned public opinion against immigration enforcement.
- Net approval of ICE plunged dramatically after recent high-profile operations, shrinking Trump's advantage on the issue.
A Rapid 50-Point Swing On Immigration
- Trump's net approval on immigration swung roughly 50 points from positive to negative in a short span.
- That rapid collapse shows how visceral incidents can quickly erode emotional bonds with his base.
Farmers Facing Labor And Export Collapse
- Wilson describes farmers who can't find workers because foreign labor vanished and Americans won't take low wages.
- He attributes this labor and export collapse partly to Trump's tariff war and bad policy choices.