Pekingology China's Demographic Dilemma
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Nov 25, 2025 Philip O’Keefe, a demographer and professor at UNSW, dives into China's demographic challenges. He discusses the implications of a rapidly aging population and the impact of low fertility rates on the economy and innovation. O’Keefe highlights regional variations in birth rates and how changing family structures affect elder support. He examines the potential of technology in elder care and the limitations of current pro-natalist policies. O’Keefe also connects these demographic shifts to China's global economic role and future growth prospects.
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Aging Reduces Consumption, Spurs Silver Economy
- Older Chinese save more than younger cohorts, which depresses aggregate consumption.
- The government is promoting a 'silver economy' to convert savings into demand across many sectors.
Prioritize Childcare And Labor Participation
- Implement broad family-support policies like childcare, parental leave, and fertility services rather than relying on one-off baby bonuses.
- Focus on measures that also raise female labor participation and reduce childrearing costs.
Limited Upside From Pronatalist Push
- Global evidence suggests pronatalist policies rarely restore fertility to replacement levels.
- China can still justify family policies for economic reasons, but major fertility reversal is unlikely without coercion.