Kontrarian Korner Kontrarian Korner #94 - John Polomny
Apr 9, 2026
John Polomny, a market analyst and Substack/YouTube commentator, shares views on how Middle East shocks reshape energy and commodity flows. He discusses oil logistics and higher price floors. He flags agricultural and fertilizer risks, buying opportunities in gold and miners, control of the Strait of Hormuz, Fed tradeoffs, US industrial frictions, and angles in copper, emerging markets, and AI-related infrastructure.
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Iran Can Monetize Strait Transit And Resist US Control
- Iran can monetize transit via negotiated fees and alternative currencies, limiting U.S. ability to control the Strait.
- Polomny explains shiptracking, paid safe-passage arrangements and Greek shippers will pay for transit despite risks.
Position For Stagflation Or Yield Curve Control
- Prepare for stagflation risk and rising long rates unless the Fed employs yield-curve control.
- Polomny argues rolling trillions of debt forces either yield increases or monetization (YCC), so position for higher rates or harder money printing.
Industrial Rebuilds Need Decades Not Election Cycles
- U.S. industrial policy cannot be rapidly rebuilt due to lack of engineers, supply chains and political cycles.
- Polomny notes transformer lead times (2.5–3 years), gas turbine waits (≈5 years) and missing trade-school workforce as structural limits.
