Why the Iran Conflict will Last Longer than Generally Expected

In this episode, journalist and author Puja Mehra speaks with Safi Rizvi, National Security Expert, Risk Analyst, Former top Intelligence Officer and Former IPS officer, about how the ongoing conflict involving Iran, the United States and its allies is reshaping the foundations of the global economic and geopolitical order. They discuss how the post-Cold War system—built on multilateral institutions, bilateral diplomacy and a broadly rules-based framework—is now giving way to a more fragmented, power-driven world.

Rizvi explains how the erosion of multilateralism and the breakdown of negotiation channels are altering the way conflicts unfold, making them longer, less predictable and more economically disruptive. He also examines how recent wars—from Ukraine to West Asia—are exposing gaps in military strategy, accelerating shifts in defence technologies, and strengthening the global military-industrial complex.

They explore how the centre of gravity in energy markets has shifted from the West to Asia, and why disruptions around critical chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz now pose far greater risks for countries like India, China, Japan and South Korea.

What does this mean for energy security, global trade flows and the ability of emerging economies to navigate prolonged geopolitical instability?

Tune in for insights into how this conflict could reshape markets, energy dynamics and the global balance of power.

CHAPTERS

(00:00) Introduction 

(01:05) Rise of De-multilateralization 

(04:12) AI Targeting and Failures 

(06:01) Military Intelligence Gap Concerns 

(07:10) Attritive vs Attritable Munitions 

(08:20) Global Energy Buyer Shifts 

(10:45) Ground War Damage Risks 

(12:40) Breakdown of Negotiation Trust 

(14:20) Oil and Gas Predictions 

(16:44) Conditions for Peace Deals 

(18:25) Proposed Buyer OPEC Plus 

(19:58) India’s Measured Peace Call 

(22:25) Strait of Hormuz Miscalculations 

(23:01) Leveraging Financial Trade Power 

(25:02) Trump’s Aggressive Defensive Strategy 

(27:25) Future Republican Leadership Shifts 

(28:30) Market Adjustments and Tariffs 

(30:08) Iranian Resilience and Nationalism
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