The Monocle Daily

Is a ceasefire in Iran coming? Plus: the looming global jet fuel crisis

17 snips
Apr 6, 2026
Ash Bardwaj, travel writer and aviation reporter, and Alex von Tunzelman, historian and geopolitical analyst, discuss Iran’s stalled ceasefire talks and shifting regional alliances. They unpack strategic risks around the Strait of Hormuz and changing ties between Syria and Ukraine. They also explore a looming global jet fuel squeeze and how it could reshape travel and rail alternatives.
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INSIGHT

Iran's Closure Of The Strait Is Leverage Not Surprise

  • Iran holds the decisive card by shutting the Strait of Hormuz, forcing negotiators to demand sanctions relief and safe passage in any ceasefire.
  • Alex Von Tunzelmann notes this was a basic strategic move and the US appears unprepared for its consequences.
INSIGHT

Attacking Civil Infrastructure Risks Strategic Backfire

  • The US response of threatening civilian infrastructure risks backfiring and resembles Russia's campaign in Ukraine.
  • Ash Bardwaj warns attacks on power plants or desalination could amount to civil terror and fail to compel political change.
INSIGHT

Mediation Needs Mutual Acceptance Not Just Offers

  • Mediation faces steep barriers because Pakistan, Egypt or Turkey must be recognised by both Iran and the US and both sides must accept a de facto draw.
  • Alex Von Tunzelmann highlights Israel's different aims as a major stumbling block.
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