Bloomberg Surveillance Stocks Tick Higher as Yields Rise After BOJ Hike
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Dec 19, 2025 Join Alicia Levine, Head of Investment Strategy at BNY Wealth, as she paints an optimistic picture for the 2026 market with a projected S&P target of 7,600. Win Thin, Chief Economist at Bank of Nassau, provides insights on inflation dynamics and labor market weakness, suggesting modest recession odds. Katy Kaminsky, Chief Research Strategist at AlphaSimplex, analyzes stock trends, emphasizing AI’s role while noting the complexities of rising yields and inflation. Together, they explore the intricacies of the current economic landscape with wit and depth.
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Use Jobs And CPI To Time Fed Moves
- Win Thin advises watching the December jobs and upcoming CPI reports to determine whether the Fed moves in January.
- He expects front‑loaded cuts and forecasts three to four cuts in 2026 versus the Fed's one‑cut dot.
AI Investment Can Cushion But Not Replace Consumption
- Win Thin argues AI and fixed‑asset investment may cushion a consumer slowdown but cannot fully replace consumption's 70% GDP weight.
- Growth will depend on whether investment can meaningfully offset weaker consumer spending.
Long Yields, Not Just Fed Cuts, Drive Mortgages
- Win Thin says long‑term yields staying elevated keep mortgage rates high even if the Fed cuts the short end.
- Lower long yields are needed to deliver a sustained housing recovery.