
Global Research Unlocked Defense to throttle up on growth, why privates can coexist with primes
Jan 22, 2026
Ron Epstein, an aerospace and defense analyst at BofA Global Research, discusses the current upcycle in U.S. defense driven by policy changes and potential budget increases. He highlights the bullish outlook for FY27, where a budget of up to $1.5 trillion may be feasible. Ron emphasizes the importance of automation in addressing labor shortages and how innovative private companies can complement established defense primes. He also delves into the benefits of open architectures and the revitalization of venture capital in defense, underscoring the symbiotic relationship between startups and larger contractors.
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Muscular Policy Spurs In-House R&D
- The current administration is more muscular on defense and wants contractors to invest more of their own money in R&D and CapEx.
- Non-traditional contractors already spend more private R&D, prompting pressure on primes to follow suit.
Large Budget Hike Drives Multi-Year Growth
- Fiscal 2027 defense requests could plausibly reach $1.2–$1.5 trillion, implying mid-teens industry growth for several years.
- Such a step-up would materially raise backlogs, margins, and earnings across defense suppliers.
Automate To Solve Labor Shortages
- Invest in automation to overcome chronic labor shortages across aerospace and defense manufacturing.
- Automation reduces reliance on scarce skilled trades and supports higher volume production without proportional headcount increases.
