The Rundown Tariffs on Trial: Trump's New Trade Policy After the Supreme Court Ban
Mar 1, 2026
Erica York, Vice President of Federal Tax Policy at the Tax Foundation, explains the Supreme Court ruling that stopped broad tariff authority and what legal paths remain. She describes which tariff powers are now active, how revenue and refunds are affected, which industries face exposure, and what policy tools Washington might use next.
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IEPA Tariffs Declared Unlawful
- The Supreme Court ruled the IEPA statute does not authorize tariffs, so the IEPA-based tariffs were unlawful and removed.
- IEPA never had tariff use historically; presidents used it for sanctions but not taxes, and the Court emphasized taxes are Congress's Article I power.
IEPA Made Up Most New Tariff Revenue
- About 70–75% of the new tariff revenue from last year came from IEPA tariffs, so most planned revenue is gone.
- York estimates roughly three-fourths of projected tariff revenues over the next decade disappear with IEPA struck down.
Push For Clear Automatic Refunds
- Expect refunds for unlawfully collected IEPA tariffs and press for a simple, transparent process based on existing import duty refund mechanisms.
- Customs already tracks payer and value, so refunds can mirror routine monthly overpayment procedures rather than novel systems.