What's Next For Markets Rising Stocks, Soft Employment, And The National Anthem
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Sep 14, 2025 Explore the intricate relationship between rising stocks and a softening labor market. Discover how upcoming macroeconomic data will shape investor expectations and the Federal Reserve's decisions. Learn about the impact of declining interest rates on housing trends and smaller companies. The emotional narrative of a father's pride during a significant family moment underscores the connection between personal experiences and market sentiments. Dive into the analysis of economic signals and prepare for what lies ahead in the markets.
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Fed Meeting And Dot Plot Watch
- Markets expect a 25bp Fed cut and look to the dot plot for future guidance at the September meeting.
- Powell often sounds dovish during pressers and markets tend to rally while he speaks but can sell off after.
Expectations Drive Market Reactions
- Market moves depend more on data relative to expectations than raw macro prints.
- Kantrowitz noted the Inflation Surprise Index trending down, showing surprises matter more than levels.
Soft Jobs Data Was Largely Priced In
- Big payroll revisions showed a softer labor market but markets barely moved because the weakness was largely expected.
- Kantrowitz emphasized normalizing raw labor numbers and focusing on context and expectations.