The Lawfare Podcast Lawfare Daily: The Gulf Widens
Mar 24, 2026
Elisa Catalano Ewers, a Middle East security expert at CFR and CNAS, breaks down Iranian strategy and regional dynamics. She describes asymmetric threats to the Strait of Hormuz and how Iran sustains pressure at low cost. Discussion covers U.S. miscalculations on escalation, allies’ maritime roles, impacts on Israel–Gulf ties, and broader geopolitical ripple effects across Europe and Asia.
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Military Success Without Strategic Resolution
- U.S. conventional military successes have been overwhelming tactically but may have neglected strategic effects, allowing Iran to continue asymmetric operations.
- Elisa warns focusing on degrading capabilities alone hasn't produced strategic resolution and escalation persists.
Weigh Multiple Exit Ramps Not Just Presidential Choice
- Consider multiple exit ramps balancing U.S., Gulf, and Israeli interests rather than relying solely on presidential decision.
- Elisa recommends evaluating regime degradation, reconstitution risk, regional political effects, and domestic costs when planning duration.
Sanctions Relief Won't Quickly Stabilize Oil Markets
- Temporarily lifting sanctions to stabilize oil markets may have limited effect and risks signaling a lifeline to Iran.
- Elisa notes strategic reserve releases and sanction waivers didn't lower prices and could undercut pressure on Tehran.