Maggie Lake Talking Markets Episode 89: The Oil Bull Case. With Josh Young.
Sep 29, 2025
Josh Young, Chief Investment Officer of Bison Interests and a contrarian value investor, dives deep into the bullish case for oil despite skepticism. He discusses the impact of geopolitical tensions and underinvestment in the energy sector. Young highlights demand drivers like China's reopening and the rise of AI, predicting oil could reach $80–$85 as a near-term fair value. He also shares insights on small-cap oil equities and the complexities of OPEC's market dynamics, offering a compelling perspective on a potentially turbulent market landscape.
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Episode notes
Use Trailing Averages For Rig Counts
- Treat short-term rig-count changes cautiously and use trailing averages to identify real trends.
- Josh recommends waiting for multi-week averages before calling a bottom in rig activity.
Demand Growth Still Intact, China Matters
- Global oil demand normally rises ~1% annually and EV adoption hasn't erased that trend.
- China reopening could add significant extra demand and surprise consensus.
Geopolitics Create Persistent Supply Risk
- Geopolitical outages average 2–3 million barrels/day offline and can spike much higher.
- Even short disruptions can sustain much higher prices for years, not just weeks.